London — 2024 is likely to be the hottest year ever recorded, with global warming already exceeding the threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to scientists, who released the latest data ahead of the COP29 climate summit due to start Monday in Azerbaijan.
Carlo Buontempo, the director of the European Union’s Copernicus Earth observation program, which produced the data, said it was an important moment for humankind.
“I call it psychological because it’s something that has been agreed not only among scientists, but between scientists and policymakers and society and nations to use as a reference point. … It is a benchmark with respect to that global discussion,” he told the Associated Press on Thursday.
Paris Agreement
Keeping global warming to within 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels was a central pillar of the 2016 Paris Agreement, a deal signed by 196 countries, which forms the basis for the annual COP summits. Scientists say exceeding that threshold will likely have catastrophic impacts.
“It can be the difference between a country existing, particularly small island developing states, and not. We’re also nearing a lot of Earth system tipping points,” said Ruth Townend, a senior research fellow at Britain’s Chatham House and co-author of its recent report, Azerbaijan’s climate leadership challenge.
“Our delicate Earth systems are in a fine balance. And once we pass certain thresholds, we can trigger climate impacts that might not be reversible, moving ourselves into new types of systems.”
Emissions gap
As for the current trajectory, the United Nations says the world is heading toward around 3°C of warming by the end of this century.
“We are teetering on a planetary tightrope,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a recorded message ahead of the summit.
“Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most. This report shows annual greenhouse gas emissions at an all-time high, rising 1.3% last year. They must fall 9% each year to 2030 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C and avoid the very worst of climate change,” Guterres said.
COP29
Such is the backdrop for the COP29 summit in Baku.
Over 12 days, hundreds of world leaders and thousands of delegates will enter thorny negotiations on how to cut global greenhouse gas emissions — and, crucially, who should pay for those cuts, along with the adaptation measures necessary to mitigate against climate change caused by past emissions.
Who pays?
A key part of COP29 is “to establish the finance in place to help developing countries produce strong new climate plans,” explained Townend.
“And those climate plans are meant to be delivered ahead of COP30 in Brazil next year. Without the finance domino in that line of dominoes, everything will essentially fall apart a little bit because developing countries won’t have any kind of promise of support from developed countries in order to produce those ambitious new climate plans,” Townend said.
Fossil fuels
Some have questioned Azerbaijan’s suitability as host of the summit. It is a major producer of oil and gas — among the fossil fuels that drive climate change.
“Around 90% of its export revenues come from oil and gas. And it is also a climate vulnerable country — so it gets around 50 to 70% of its water from over its borders, outside its borders,” Townend said.
“So, it really is between a rock and a hard place on climate action and transition. And as such, it has a really strong interest in getting finance in place to help developing countries such as itself to find a feasible path forward,” she told VOA.
Trump shadow
Looming over the summit is Donald Trump’s victory in the Tuesday U.S. presidential election.
In his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement and could do so again once he assumes the presidency in January. He has also pledged to open vast areas of the U.S. for oil and gas drilling.
There are also fears that Trump’s proposed import tariffs could lead to a trade war with China. The U.S. and China are the top two emitters of greenhouse gases and together account for around a third of global emissions.
The world must adapt to such tensions, said Townend.
“We’re unlikely to be moving towards a world that is more stable with increasing climate impact. So, we do need to learn to manage under these conditions of geopolitical instability, which will only increase going forward.”
Extreme weather
From the wildfires currently raging in California to the recent deadly floods in Spain’s Valencia, scientists say extreme weather events are a clear indication of the urgency of curbing global warming.
“There is very strong evidence suggesting that many of these extreme events have become more intense because of climate change. And there is a good understanding of why,” said Buontempo of the EU Copernicus program, who added it’s vital that COP29 is a success.
“These multilateral negotiations and discussion is the mechanism we have to find a global solution,” he added.
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